Generate Forecast
Form ID: (AM502000)
You use this form to calculate suggested forecasts for the next twelve months, either as an annual amount or for each month, for stock items from historical data. Forecasts are used by the MRP regeneration process performed on the Regenerate MRP (AM505000) form. The historical data used is the released invoices from Sales Orders/AR Invoices and Memos in the Inventory Transactions details. You can use multiple years of history and assign a weight to the most current history; provide growth factors positive or negative; select item class, items, warehouses, and/or customers. You can calculate as many times as you like with different parameters. The suggested forecast can be manually adjusted after calculation.
Additionally, this tool can be used to calculate a forecast from existing data for another item, or warehouse, or optionally a customer, to use as a forecast for another item, warehouse, and/or customer. For example, you have a new inventory item that will replace an existing inventory item. You calculate the forecast for the existing item and then update the calculated forecast to assign it to the new inventory item.
After you Process the forecast you can further maintain or adjust it by using the Forecast (AM202000) form.
Forecast Calculation
The formula used for calculation is the following:
Calculation per Period = ((Last Year * Factor) + (SUM(Previous Years)/
Number of Years With Sales * (1 - Factor))) * (1 + Growth Rate)The Factor is the weight assigned to past 12 months data. If the
Factor is 1, then older data is not used.
| Factor | Period in Prior Year or Prior Year | Past Period or Year | Forecast Quantity | Change in Units | Change in Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0.25 |
2450 |
6125 |
3368.75 |
-2756.25 |
-0.45 |
|
0.50 |
2450 |
6125 |
4287.5 |
-1837.5 |
-0.3 |
|
0.75 |
2450 |
6125 |
5206.25 |
-918.75 |
-0.15 |
|
1.00 |
2450 |
6125 |
6125 |
0 |
0 |
In the above table for a factor of .50 the calculation is (6125 * .5) + (2450 * 1-.50) = 4287.5 which will be round up to 4288. Forecasted quantities cannot have decimals.
Seasonality
If seasonality is used, the forecast is ONLY calculated for the date ranges specified on the Replenishment Seasonality (IN206600) form. We recommend that you create seasonality date ranges that cover the entire forecast 12 months to ensure you will have a forecast.
Form Tool Bar
The form toolbar includes standard and form-specific buttons and commands. For the list of standard buttons, see Form Toolbar and More Menu. The form-specific commands are listed in the following table.
| Button | Description |
|---|---|
| Process |
Insert the selected calculated lines into the forecast tables. |
| Process All |
Insert all of the calculated lines into the forecast tables. |
| Calculate |
Calculate a suggested forecast for all or selected elements. |
Selection Area
These determine which stock items, warehouses, and a customer are selected for calculation.
| Element | Description |
|---|---|
| Forecast Date |
Defaults from Business date. This is the starting date for the forecasts to be generated. Historical data is selected starting from this date backwards for the past 12 months or if the Years of History is specified, the number of years * 12. |
| Type |
This specifies whether or not to apply seasonality when calculating the forecast. Options are the following:
|
| Seasonality |
If the type is Seasonality, then select the Seasonality to use. If using seasonality, it will use each item's defined seasonality. If an item does not have a seasonality the selected seasonality time periods will be used These are defined on the Replenishment Seasonality (IN206600) form. Attention: The forecast is only calculated for the date ranges specified
in seasonality.
This element is only enabled when the Inventory Replenishment feature is enabled on the Enable/Disable Features (CS100000) form. |
| Growth Rate |
Growth rates are applied to the calculated forecast. They can be positive or negative. For example, for a 10% growth rate enter .1; for negative 15% enter -.15. Growth rates are linear; e.g. the growth rate is applied to each period |
| Factor |
The factor is the weight you wish to give for the most current sales history and cannot be greater than 1. Please see the section above on Forecast calculation. |
| Calculate by Month |
If checked, the forecast is calculated for each month, otherwise the forecast is one number for the year. This is recommended. |
| Years of History |
Enter the number of history years to use. When using history, you should assign a weight Factor otherwise only the most recent history (the past year or past 12 periods) is used. |
| Dependent |
This sets the default to the calculated forecast. The Dependent check box indicates to the MRP generation that sales orders consume the forecast. |
| Customer |
Optionally enter a customer to use for calculation. Only the shipments for this customer will be selected. |
| Process by Customer | When selected and the Customer box is empty, the forecast is calculated for all customers when they have data. |
| Warehouse |
If not specified all warehouses will be calculated. |
| Inventory ID |
If not specified all inventory items will be calculated. |
| Item Class |
If not specified all item classes will be calculated. |
Table Area
The table contains the calculated forecast. You can update selected columns.
The table toolbar includes only standard buttons. For the list of standard buttons, see Table Toolbar.
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Selected |
If selected, this line will update the forecast records. |
| Inventory Id |
The stock item for the forecasted line. This can be updated; for example, you would like to use the calculated forecast from this item as the forecast for another item. |
| Subitem |
This column is visible only if the Inventory
Subitems feature is enabled on the Enable/Disable Features
(CS100000) form.
Important: The Inventory
Subitems check box has been removed from the Enable/Disable Features form because the functionality associated
with the Inventory Subitems feature will be phased out. If you have this feature
enabled in your system, the associated functionality remains available. To disable the
feature, contact your MYOB support provider. |
| Warehouse |
The warehouse for the forecasted line. This can be updated; for example, you would like to use the calculated forecast from this warehouse as the forecast for another warehouse, or another item, in another warehouse. |
| Begin Date |
The forecast is effective as of this date. |
| End Date |
The last day this forecast is effective unless another forecast having the same item and warehouse and optionally customer has a begin date earlier than this end date. |
| Quantity |
This is the calculated forecast. |
| UOM |
The base, or stocking unit, for the quantity. Only the base unit is forecasted. |
| Customer |
The customer for the forecasted line. This can be updated; for example, you would like to use the calculated forecast from this customer as the forecast for another customer, or another item, in another warehouse. |
| Change in Units |
The difference between the forecasted Quantity and Last Year Base. |
| Percent change |
The difference between the forecasted Quantity and Last Year Base. |
| Dependent |
Defaulted from the selection criteria value and may be updated. This check box indicates to the MRP generation that sales order consume the forecast. |
| Last Year |
Actual shipments for this line from history for the past year or the same period in the past year factored by the seasonality. |
| Last Year Base |
Actual shipments for this line from history for the past year or the same period in the past year. |
| Seasonality |
The replenishment seasonality assigned to this item and warehouse. |