Forecast Generation

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Use this form to generate forecast values for manufactured items, based on specific criteria and item trees. Only items assigned to the selected tree or branches displayed on the right side of the form are included in the process.

You can select None as the inventory tree to include all items in the generation process.

Forecast file name

Enter or select a forecast to identify the forecast and related criteria, up to 30 alphanumeric characters.

Forecast calendar

The forecast calendar defines the period start and finish dates for forecasts generated, and may be selected from the list of available system defined calendars. This is taken from the Default Re-order calendar selected on the Inventory Module Control form.

Report name

Select either:

• MF Generated Forecast Report - This option enables the Print button for printing the Forecast Listing from the form.
• None - This option only calculates a forecast. The Print button is disabled.

Forecast end date

Period forecast quantities up to and including this date are calculated. This must be a valid period end date, using the forecast calendar that is selected.

These entries are used to include adjustments to the calculation of the forecast:

Adjustment Factors

Sales weighting

This represents the percentage confidence in the sales analysis figures, and defaults to 100. It can be a whole number between 1 and 100. The calculated forecast quantity is multiplied by this percentage to determine the forecast.

For example, 100% creates a forecast based on 100% of the sales history, while 75% creates a forecast based on 75% of the sales history.

Forecast fixed for x periods

This field displays if the forecast has previously been generated, and is used to prevent an existing forecast quantity from being updated.

For example, the forecast is generated for a different month. If a non-zero value is entered here, Greentree Desktop does not update an existing forecast period ending calculation when you generate a forecast, starting from the first forecast period, for the number of periods specified.

Treat today as last day of period

Select this option to treat the current day as the last day of the period. The start of the first forecast period is then determined as the next date after the last sales history period end date.

Example:

Calendar periods are 31/03/19, 30/04/19, 31/05/19. Today is 20/04/19:

• Treat today as last day of period is true
• Last Sales History period end = 30/04/19
• First Forecast Period end = 31/05/19
• Treat today as last day of period is not selected
• Last Sales History period end = 31/03/19
• First Forecast Period end = 30/04/18

Part period adjustment %

This option is enabled if the Treat today as last day of period option is selected. It extrapolates a part-period sales history to a full sales period history.

Example:

• Today is 24/06 24 days of this period's sales history is accumulated.
• Period end date is 30/06 so there are 30 days in the sales period.
• % sales achieved = 80% (taken from 24 ÷ 30 x 100), which indicates that of this month's expected sales has occurred.
• Sales history quantity to 25/06 = 200.
• Recalculated sales history quantity for June = 250 (200 ÷ 100 x 80).

You can adjust the part period adjustment value to any whole number between 1 and 100. You can use this when a simple linear extrapolation using the days left in the month is not appropriate – for example, if the weighting of sales is known to be heavier at the end of the month, or was known to be higher at the beginning of the month as the result of a promotion, and the like.

Generation defaults

These parameters determine how Greentree Desktop analyses the sales to generate the forecast.

Period type

Select the period type for analysing sales history (Days, Weeks, Months, or Years). This is taken from the Inventory Module Control form. You should select a period type aligned with the forecast calendar.

No. of periods

Enter the number of periods of the selected period type for which the sales history is analysed. This is taken from the Inventory Module Control form. For example, to analyse sales for the last six months to generate a forecast to the end of the year, select Months as the period type, and 6 as the number of periods. Enter a forecast end date of 31/12/18.

Calculation method

Select the calculation method to use when generating forecasts. Options available are Linear Regression and Curve Fitting. This defaults from the Inventory Module Control form.

The curve fitting calculation method only applies if there is a full year's sales history, otherwise the linear regression method is used. A full year's sales history is defined as:

Once the history is determined, Greentree Desktop forecasts future demand, which is what the forecast quantities are based on. The sales forecasting process is based on extrapolating the calculated sales history data by using the specified method.

Typically, for each item included in the forecast run, the forecasting calculation:

• Determines the average sales history by period.
• Calculates the deviation from either the sales history (linear regression method), or from the wave average (curve fitting method).
• Calculates the projected sales quantity at the end of each forecast period, and adjusts it (based on sales weighting).

All warehouses

Select this option to generate the forecast at the total item level. Sales history and the resulting forecast accumulate to the item level for all warehouse locations.

If not selected, the resulting forecast is at the warehouse location or item level for the selected warehouses.

Select All

Click this button to select all branches of the inventory tree.

Unselect All

Click this button to deselect all branches of the inventory tree.

Generate

Click this button to generate the forecast. A progress bar displays during the generation.

The forecast quantities generate using the calculation method, for the selected forecast calendar, for all periods up to and including the forecast end date. Greentree Desktop calculates quantities to the number of decimal places of each inventory item's decimal unit.

Note: If a forecast is used in a Forecast Maintenance reference, you cannot regenerate it and this button is disabled. To regenerate, you must either delete the reference to the forecast on the Forecast Maintenance form or create a forecast file.

Print

This button is enabled if MF Forecast Listing Report is selected as the report name, and a forecast has been generated. Click the button to open the Forecast Listing selection form and print the report.

Additional Notes:

• Sales analysis is based on transactions if inventory is issued. This includes issues to job cost jobs if the Inventory Module Control option Job Cost Updates Sales History is selected. If you don't select this option, issues to jobs is not included in the sales analysis and is not taken into account when forecasts are calculated.
• If you delete a forecast file that is used in a Forecast Maintenance reference, this deletes all Forecast Maintenance references that use that forecast, and any changes you made to that forecast using the Forecast Maintenance function.

• Forecast Maintenance
• Inventory Module Control
• MRP Generation
• Forecast Listing Report
• Inventory Item Maintenance

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